We're calling it: The Apple Watch could maybe possibly be a homerun

In a piece by Quartz's Dan Frommer titled “2015 is the year of the Apple Watch”, several bold predictions are made:

  1. It could be Apple’s next big hit.
  2. It could be the first breakout wearable device.
  3. It could make you rich.
  4. It could torch the watch industry.
  5. It could change the way people live. etc.

Notice the de-boldifying usage of the word “could” there, because while it certainly looks like Frommer is optimistic about the Apple Watch, like any good tech journalist, he's got to leave himself an out in case Apple pulls an Amazon Fire Phone and fails in spectacular fashion ending with the watch being literally given away and still unwanted.

Meanwhile in his predictions for 2015, venture capitolist guy Fred Wilson takes a distinctly more uncouched view of the Apple Watch:

Another market where the reality will not live up to the hype is wearables. The Apple Watch will not be the homerun product that iPod, iPhone, and iPad have been. Not everyone will want to wear a computer on their wrist. Eventually, this market will be realized as the personal mesh/personal cloud, but the focus on wearables will be a bit of a headfake and take up a lot of time, energy, and money in 2015 with not a lot of results.

So, much more definitively negative on the Apple Watch's prospects, there's no “could” here, and props to Wilson for it.

And my thoughts? Will the Apple Watch launch be the biggest thing ever, or will Apple's virgin attempt to sell the world on wearables be a disaster of epic proportions? I'll bravely forward that I have a hard time picturing anything but long launch day lines and short supplies for a month or two if only because Cupertino will be advertising the bejeezus out of the Apple Watch across all sorts of media emphasizing in the most inspiring and appealing ways possible (i.e. not Gary Busey) that the Apple Watch is both indispensable to daily life and the sexiest thing to ever accessorize a human being's body since the laced collar. Successful launch? Check. Outsells all other comparable wearables? Yep. iPhone 6 kind of numbers? No, but exceeds Apple's expectations while disappointing somebody at Business Insider: Most definitely yes.